Stocks or NFL Quarterbacks No One Really Knows How It Will Turn Out

by: Brendan Magee

Since the Eagles traded up to the second spot in tonight's NFL draft, it's been none stop talk about who will the Eagles choose. North Dakota State's Q.B. Carson Wentz or University of California Q.B. Jared Goff.
Both players have been analyzed to death. How far can they throw the ball. How fast can they run. Are they mature enough. How big are their hands, etc.

If you are an NFL team about to risk millions of dollars, as well as the general manger's and head coach's job on a player you want to know as much about them as possible, right?

But for all the hours and money spent researching a player, no one really knows who is going on to a hall of fame career or who will be a flat out bust. Players that looked like can't miss players have wound up on the heap with tons of other can't miss players. Can you say Ryan Leaf? Players who no one ever heard have gone on to achieve legendary status. Can you say Johnny Unitas or Joe Montana? Granted these were players who were evaluated by people who have spent a life time in football and are damn good at it.

The same can be said of investors and so called professionals when it comes to their predictions about stocks or the stock market. They are well educated and highly intelligent people. However, there is one thing no one's education or training can help them with, consistently predicting the future. No one has and as far as I can tell no one has figured out how to do that on a reliable basis.

For all the research on Goff and Wentz, no one knows how they will fare against NFL competition until they get on the field and do it on a consistent basis. For all the research you or your favorite analyst might do on AT&T, Apple, gold, options, etc. they do not know how they will do in the next six months, two years, ten or twenty years.

No matter how much research is done, all the knowable and predictable info has already been absorbed into its current price. It is only unknowable and unpredictable info and how people around the world react to it that will move the stock or the market. How confident are you in predicting world events and how people around the globe will react to them? How confident would you be in someone Else's ability to do it.

Yet this is the system driving the fortunes, or misfortunes, of investors around the globe. It might be ok for some fun if you should tune into the NFL draft this evening, but not for your life savings.

Brendan Magee is the founder and president of Inevitable Wealth Coaching. With questions or comments e-mail brendan@coachgee.com or call 610-446-4322