Want To Know What The Best Future Play Is With Your Investments? So Would I!

Who Really Believes They Can Predict The Future, Reliably

                                                                                        By: Brendan Magee

I was in the car the other day listening to my local talk station and an advertisement came on the air and the announcer asked "Want to know what the future play is for your investments? Then tune into this Saturday's Financial Quarterback Show." As I listened to the announcement I had two thoughts:

1. It would be awfully foolish and arrogant of me to announce to the world that I can reliably, consistently predict the future.

This would be especially true when it comes to stocks and the market because all the knowable and predictable information is already factored into market levels and stock prices. When it comes to prices or markets moving, that comes from unknowable unpredictable events and how people, six billion, around the world react to that new news and information.

I find it hard enough to predict how one person who I have lived with for seven years now is going to react on a day in day out basis. What do you think my odds are of predicting how someone in Hong Kong, Germany, Brazil, or Africa who I have never met is going to react to news and world events that have not even happened yet on a consistent basis?

2. What happens to the people who listen to the show and some how believe that this radio show host has the ability to tell them what to be doing with their money based on a prediction about the future? Somehow they have been led to believe that forecasting and investing are the same thing. They are not. Forecasting and speculation about the future is gambling, not investing. When it comes to gambling, the gambler will eventually lose. Academic paper upon academic paper statistically proves this.

If it weren't gambling, and the show host new exactly what was going to be happening in the market tomorrow and all the days after, he would be so rich he wouldn't have time nor the inclination to share with the the public about his investing insights.   Unfortunately, this is not disclosed to the investor tuning into this radio show.

There are three kinds of people who make predictions about the stock market, those who don't know they don't know, those who know they do not know, and those who know darn well they do not know, but get paid big bucks convincing you they know. In any case, stay away from those making predictions and you and your money will be much better off.

Brendan Magee is the founder and president of Inevitable Wealth Coaching. With questions or comments, e-mail Brendan@coachgee.com or call 610-446-4322.